Technologies shrinks the time, but AI and Bitcoin shrinks it faster
Asher Idan, Ph.D
Imagine everything that Google and Facebook know about us, will be under our control in the palm of our hand. Google and Facebook have reached their peak, and from now on they are only declining.
The anti-Microsoft sentiment that Google has utilized for its benefit during its IPO in the year 2003 “do not be evil” a decade ago, will henceforth be “do not be centralized” in favor of distributed artificial intelligence in blockchain.
first published in the year 2006, in Hebrew, https://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3313388,00.html
1, In the dark, you can’t see Black Swans.
In the “AI and Crypto-Coin Age”, Zuckerberg did not understand the Blockchain along 9 years, just as Google did not understand what a social network is along 12 years, like Bill Gates did not understand along 20 years what a search engine is, like IBM did not understand what a PC operating system is along 30 years. The frequency of the appearance of new Black Swans is accelerating, from 30 years to 9 years. I call this acceleration of the Internet technology “Net Lag”, which is much stronger than the acceleration of the jet plane technology, which creates Jet Lag.
If you have ever taken an intercontinental flight, you have probably experienced the disruptive phenomenon of Jet Lag: a few hours inconsistency between your own conscious, biological time and the actual one, caused by our old habits. The effects of such few-hours gap on a human’s mind are short termed, usually resolves on their own after few days. But what if, instead of only a few hours inconsistency, we would have experienced a gap of few decades? What could have been the effects of such gap on the human brains and on the human organizations? Thanks to Lihi Idan and Alex Rozenfarb
All this point to the most influential gap of our era: Net lag. Net lag is an inconsistency, a gap, between on the one hand our slow mechanical and pre-networked habits and institutions, and on the other hand the new hyper fast networked new institutions and habits: habits of using Bitcoin instead of Dollar, reading hypertext instead of text, sharing institutions like Wikipedia and Facebook instead of copyright institutions like newspaper and Britannica.
The private blockchains are not hard forks, but fractal-forks (fractures), which are typical of the world of networks. For example, the medical world needs a blockchain that will save the global health services, about $ 300 billion a year on a $ 6 trillion health care market. This savings will accelerate the increase in the value of the a special “health-currency”. As more people join Blockchain based health services, on the one hand, customers will feel the decline in prices, and on the other hand, the profit of the service providers will not decrease and will even increase.
2, A Short History of the Net Lag Phenomena
The first stage of the Jet Lag phenomena began with Moore Law, which deal with the exponential growth of the power of computers in 1965. But since 2015, we entered the second stage of the Net Lag phenomenon, which caused by the machine learning law- a parallel law to the Moore law. Both rules introduce an exponential nature of the computational power, but while Moore deals with transistors, the machine learning law deals with machine’s IQ levels, which result from a broader access to data, access to diverse data, and more sophisticated, accurate models of the human brain.
In 1993, Eric Schmidt, the first Google’s CEO and the former CEO of SUN, the inventor of Java language, had a revelation. This revelation, which has been supported by new discoveries in the field of neural and genetic networks, is associated with a completely new concept of time and history, as described in an email from Schmidt to the futurist George Gilder: “when the network will be faster than the computer, the computer will evaporate and would be absorbed within the network.”.
Every network is computer and every computer is network. The difference between internet and a silicon chip is the size. And distance is only the specs of interaction.
Many did not understand what he was saying and thought that money can be made only from businesses of software and hardware. But Schmidt insisted and wrote: “The big money will come, from networks”. After Schmidt’s revelation, came other 3 revelations about the network revolution: Amazing, but that same year Linus Trovalds sent an email that began “the open era”: from Linux open source movement to Wikipedia. That same year, Tim Berners-Lee finished building the Web. Two years later, Andreessen developed the first browser “mosaic” which later became Netscape Navigator “.
Schmidt discovered a completely new rhythm of time, the networked time. Until now, mankind lived in rhythms of time according to different types of technology:
A, before coins, gold, writing technologies and agriculture, humanity lived tens of thousands of years, in the time rate of primitive oral cultures, living in barter economy of occasional grazing and hunting, without any kind of money.
Money is mnemonics. 100–150 — the Dumbar limit of knowing people. Very low SKU in the low thousands … for over million years or dozens of thousands of generations it was enough to have talking brains to memorize all the transactions. Folklore money. Wrongly interpreted as «primitive communism» or «gift economy».
EVEN more and deeper … Coercion is a currency. A primitive, non-value multiplcicator, non-reciprocal. Vulture, parasitism, predation … taxation in more modern times. Whoever manages to put together memory and finite-state-automata money ( memoriless computers ) types of transaction / transactors will have to win a Nobel prize for actually creating a Grand Unified Theory of economics AND ecology :)
B, Before the paper money, the printing technology and industry humanity lived thousands of years of traditional time rate of civilizations, used symbolic coins and gold, wrote papyrus and parchment, living in an agricultural economy organized around rivers such as the Nile and the Ganges.
C, Before the digital money which was based on computer technology and information economy humanity lived hundreds of years the pace of the modern paper money, and of the industrial economies of the factories and offices. Keep up with modern times.
D, Before the network technology, humanity lived decades in the time rate of post-modern cultures and economy of computer hardware and software.
E, Now we are getting into the rhythm of the network. This time is different from all kinds of time we have known. We may even return to the primitive rhythm of time: to the Blockchain and AI in networked Space-Time.
We have here a chilling phenomenon: a technological revolution collapsed all the time ten times! This contraction jumps exponentially. Are the coming revolutions will occur within days or hours? Or perhaps a matter of seconds? Is any man able to absorb the rhythms of time so fast?
This leads us to the concept of singularity, which in physics it means that the laws of physics collapse at the level of subatomic smallness. But in psychology and sociology and decision-making, Singularity means that our psychological and social practices will collapse in certain level of acceleration.
3, From Moore law in 1967 to machine learning law in 2017
In early November 2016, computer scientists and users of Google Translate, observed a quantum leap in the capabilities of Google translation. This happened because of Google’s infrastructure revolution. Infrastructure built for a decade, the project “Brain” has been replaced by a new hardware infrastructure (TPU — tensor Processing Unit) and new software (Deep machine learning). Google is just one of the organizations that make up the AI revolution of the 21st. century together with Facebook, Tesla, Baidu, Apple, Amazon, IBM, and Uber.
GPU VS. CPU
This substitution is part of the new strategy of Google CEO Sundar Pichai, of global computing paradigm shift: from now on “Google Inside”, as once was the “Intel Inside.” This is by going programming, machine learning. The new strategy, learn to program computers themselves at the “global school”, so the Big Data will “fuel” their own. The bigger Data, the machines will be studying, the more it will be smart. For example, Google Translate has 500 million users, dealing with 140 billion words in dozens of languages, in a single day. Also, in the last refugee crisis, in the Middle East and Europe, the number of users on Google Translate translated from Arabic into German, doubled 5 times.
As the amount of data and a variety of languages grew more, the deep machine learning (DML) Google’s done a whole lot smarter. The DML is a “new processor” of the era of the network. Moore’s Law is replaced by “Human-less law”: driverless car, doctor-less hospital,,,human less world.
Moore’s Law runs for 50 year since 1965, shows that bigger number of transistors on the processor leads to better computer performance, and doubles roughly every two years. The Human-less Law show that the approach to big data a wider net, the DML will be a whole lot smarter and doubling itself every unit in a given time, which that will jump exponentially wisely.
The entire earth or more general Midgard or Eucumene , the human space are subject of Moore»s law entropic forces. Relentless forces. Acually predating humanity with hundreds of millions of years if we accept as a threshold the multicellularity and encephalization, or billions of years if we take as «beginning» the entropically inevitable emergence of life or the entropically inevtable jumpstart of this universe 13.87 bln yrs ago … IT seems universe and life are synonymous.
Moore’s Law doubling of processor power every two years, just opened exponential series of other laws: the law of bandwidth speed doubling every year, (Gilder law), and the law of doubling the memory every year. Over these laws appeared “second-order laws”: Eric Schmidt’s law asserts that because the acceleration of the speed of communication was twice the acceleration of processing speed, “the network is the computer”, computing power in the cloud. Another law, Shirky’s Law says that because of the exponentially, the cost of P2P in collaboration and in transaction will tend to be “almost Zero”, enabling the surge of Bitcoin Uber and Airbnb.
This means that deep machine learning engine, DML, enter each field. Only 20 years ago, “Google and the Google Earth in a phone” was fully considered science fiction or witchcraft. Imagine now the “Human-less inside” in every device. This marks the transition from specific artificial intelligence, to general artificial intelligence.
4, The organism, the machine, and the network: space-time
Time and space are the foundations of thought and language, and precedes the basic concepts of evolution, history and geography. To have a sense of history or geography, we need certain concepts of time and space.
On the other hand, and in interactive way, our daily practice, define different kinds of space and time. For example, writing is a practice that precedes the concepts of history and evolution.
We will review this interactive-dialectical circularity in three periods:
1. The pre-modern period until the printing revolution and industrial revolution,
2. The modern era until the smartphone and the network,
3. The post-modern era of the smartphone and the network.
In pre-modern civilization, time is cyclical, and heterogeneous. Time is not a machine but an organism, as defined by the concept of Duree of Henry Bergson.
The sciences of time, like history evolution and thermodynamics, were established in the 19th century, and are a symptom of the mechanical-linear time of modern civilization. Time become mechanical and homogenous, like an alarm clock.
At the end of the 20th century, we see the birth of the networked space-time (with no void, and the negation of negation does not return to zero, because you cannot take a dip in the same river twice). The future wars will be between the civilizations of time (Darwinism, enlightenment, progress) and the civilizations of space-time of the network (global village, networked clans).
The pre-modern close space is based on a hierarchy of sacred space and secular space. Galileo broke the pre-modern space. Modern space became infinite and open. The holy traditional time were secularized by the evolution and history of modern times. But sacred space remains also in the modern era: the separation between the men’s women’s services, a selector club, entertainment space and work space, family space and private space, public space of the city or state and private space
Postmodern space, however, is based on a relationship that can describe as a network. The position the body no longer moves in a fixed point, but space is determined by the movement.
One expression of this is the space icons: table, Data Base are sorting systems. Space has shrunk into the smartphone, the size of a palm by Google Earth. The global social network compress hundreds of millions of people, into the size of the palm by Facebook. The smartphone creates networked space-time. The aircraft and the steam boat creates linear time and linear space.
In modern linear practice, the problem is lack of time. In postmodern networked practice, problem is the lack of memory.
5, Traditional versus modern man
Modern man drives a fast car instead a slow camel. Modern man is updated news’ changing daily newspaper or on the radio every half hour, while the traditional man reads the same prayer every morning. Five hundred years ago, the print revolution and industrial revolution of the machine, greatly accelerated the pace of life of modern man in relation to primitive or traditional man.
The concept of time is dependent on technology. Is Internet technology has accelerated the time much more than the car and the newspaper? The unequivocal answer is yes! How does this happen? Why we return to the primitive time?
This is because the network time is the organic time. This is the time of the brain and nervous system, heart and blood vessel network. The computer is the network and the individual is the tribe.
6, Singularity: the collapse of time and history in the 21st century
According to McLuhan, Technology is the extension of human organs.
1. 10 ^ 6 Million years ago, the human split from the chimpanzee.
2. 10 ^ 5 Hundreds of thousands of years ago, The thinker split from the Neanderthal through speech.
3. 10 ^ 4 Tens of thousands of years ago, appeared the drawing ability (the cave paintings 60,000 years ago).
4. 10 ^ 3 Thousands of years ago, appeared the writing abilities and indeed most of the world’s creation stories indicate about 6,000 years since culture is probably “gardens” outside the body, took immediate change in the transport of biology.
5. 10 ^ 2Hundreds of years ago, appeared the print culture.
6. 10 ^ 1 Decades ago, appeared the network culture.
Are these technologies will crash time and return to the history of nations “lack of time”? The intention is to the Web 3.0 semantic capabilities of artificial intelligence, which will connect our brain network, Web 4.0 of nanotechnology and biotechnology connecting the network of our genes, and Web 5.0 quantum erase the difference between information and matter and make the universe a computer network that galaxies are its servers.
7, Hanson Engines
A study by J. Bradford DeLong of the Department of Economics at U.C. Berkeley estimated Gross World Product for the period 1 million BC until today. Take a look at this amazing graph:
Illustration cited from.: https://profitfromfolly.wordpress.com/2012/07/10/why-im-an-optimist/